Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 10.843116 12.120880 13.554182 15.294285 17.367718 19.782310 22.841401
2025-05-04 8.905251 10.458518 12.331651 14.797753 18.023024 22.193706 28.164464
2025-05-11 8.087330 9.833559 12.051606 15.154034 19.517668 25.668412 35.470752
2025-05-18 7.309238 9.110596 11.486366 14.962966 20.135597 27.951148 41.597245
2025-05-25 6.712026 8.536858 11.019305 14.793012 20.688037 30.168395 48.208502
2025-06-01 6.262677 8.107309 10.686308 14.743684 21.373724 32.690225 56.158963
2025-06-08 5.800053 7.611578 10.198843 14.381398 21.469641 34.183415 62.598864
2025-06-15 5.492209 7.307781 9.957758 14.363923 22.123908 36.811739 72.541189
2025-06-22 5.084741 6.826303 9.404441 13.771398 21.663232 37.162623 77.216303
2025-06-29 4.710786 6.369894 8.854202 13.126397 21.013234 36.991525 80.504451
2025-07-06 4.425204 6.028854 8.459094 12.705783 20.726405 37.534772 86.079302
2025-07-13 4.503628 6.244608 8.958655 13.886619 23.727367 46.185155 122.057731
2025-07-20 4.394459 6.169727 8.993773 14.266609 25.243554 52.009599 155.147385
2025-07-27 4.141261 5.851961 8.602130 13.813153 24.906206 52.960007 169.656145
2025-08-03 4.045275 5.779599 8.618496 14.136330 26.352394 59.348322 218.251847
2025-08-10 3.875735 5.576925 8.394425 13.963097 26.619388 62.389031 254.261551
2025-08-17 3.722988 5.393318 8.190683 13.808936 26.907374 65.632437 298.352327
2025-08-24 3.598487 5.249832 8.047967 13.764178 27.461145 70.017093 362.316965
2025-08-31 3.441867 5.044570 7.781259 13.435278 27.234254 71.590062 407.358304
2025-09-07 3.340102 4.927343 7.667249 13.419404 27.833977 76.546257 506.123128
2025-09-14 3.173754 4.692572 7.324350 12.880753 26.936094 75.301206 527.426413
2025-09-21 3.010213 4.456968 6.969745 12.293379 25.838365 72.975906 530.361025
2025-09-28 2.882656 4.279148 6.715182 11.909757 25.270800 72.768151 568.227971